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Record #186045:

Estimation of effective sample size for catch-at-age and catch-at-length data using simulated data from the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution / S.G. Candy.

Title: Estimation of effective sample size for catch-at-age and catch-at-length data using simulated data from the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution / S.G. Candy.
Author(s): Candy, S. G.
Date: 2008.
In: CCAMLR Science. (2008.), Vol. 15 (2008)
Abstract: Examines performance of set of four alternative estimators of effective sample size (ESS) to assess numerically efficient approaches for determining ESS to apply within existing, commonly available, integrated assessment software. Existing method of estimating ESS for catch-at-age or catch-at-length data in integrated assessments that uses aggregate year-level data is shown to have poor accuracy when heterogeneity in class proportions is due to between-haul within-year variation. Three alternative methods of estimation based on haul-level data, including new method recently implemented for CASAL-based assessment for Patagonian toothfish fisheries around sub-Antarctic Heard and McDonald Islands, are shown to greatly improve estimation. Examination of process error shows that when systematic lack-of-fit across years is mis-specified as process error, methods which attempt to account for process error give inappropriately low values of ESS. This has important implications for determining appropriate implicit weight given to commercial catch length of age frequencies versus other datasets via their negative log-likelihood contribution to objective function in integrated assessment software. Five-step approach to estimating ESS for catch-at-age and/or catch-at-length data in integrated assessments is recommended.
Notes:

CCAMLR Science. Vol. 15 :115-138 (2008).

Keywords: 639.2 -- Fisheries.
639.2.001 -- Fisheries research.
51 -- Mathematics.
519.2 -- Statistical methods.
519.673 -- Modelling.
N -- Renewable resources.
(*7) -- Antarctic regions.
(*78) -- Sub-Antarctic islands.
(*785) -- Heard and McDonald Islands.
(*80) -- Southern Ocean.
(*86) -- Southern Ocean, Australian sector.
SPRI record no.: 186045

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520 3# ‡aExamines performance of set of four alternative estimators of effective sample size (ESS) to assess numerically efficient approaches for determining ESS to apply within existing, commonly available, integrated assessment software. Existing method of estimating ESS for catch-at-age or catch-at-length data in integrated assessments that uses aggregate year-level data is shown to have poor accuracy when heterogeneity in class proportions is due to between-haul within-year variation. Three alternative methods of estimation based on haul-level data, including new method recently implemented for CASAL-based assessment for Patagonian toothfish fisheries around sub-Antarctic Heard and McDonald Islands, are shown to greatly improve estimation. Examination of process error shows that when systematic lack-of-fit across years is mis-specified as process error, methods which attempt to account for process error give inappropriately low values of ESS. This has important implications for determining appropriate implicit weight given to commercial catch length of age frequencies versus other datasets via their negative log-likelihood contribution to objective function in integrated assessment software. Five-step approach to estimating ESS for catch-at-age and/or catch-at-length data in integrated assessments is recommended.
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