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Record #126216:

Modelling permafrost response to climatic change and climate variability / Daniel W. Riseborough, Michael W. Smith.

Title: Modelling permafrost response to climatic change and climate variability / Daniel W. Riseborough, Michael W. Smith.
Author(s): Riseborough, Daniel W.
Smith, Michael W.
Date: 1993.
In: CRREL Special Report. (1993.), Vol. 93-22 (1993)
Abstract: Investigated by means of numerical soil thermal model forced by surface climate with interannual variability generated by Monte Carlo technique. Long-term series of daily climate were created by random compilations from climate record for Fort Simpson, NWT, to which were added GCM-predicted CO₂-induced monthly mean temperature and precipitation changes. Based on 120 simulations for next 100 years, permafrost in this area (now only up to 5 m thick) is predicted to degrade completely within 25 to 63 years. Prediction using climatic normals was found to underestimate time required to thaw permafrost completely, due to significance of occasional very cold years to persistance of marginal permafrost.
Notes:

CRREL Special Report. Vol. 93-22 :179-187 (1993).

Keywords: 551.34 -- Geocryology. Frozen ground.
551.345.2 -- Permafrost, formation and decay.
519.673 -- Modelling.
551.58 -- Climatology.
E8 -- Glaciology: frost action and permafrost.
SPRI record no.: 126216

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520 3# ‡aInvestigated by means of numerical soil thermal model forced by surface climate with interannual variability generated by Monte Carlo technique. Long-term series of daily climate were created by random compilations from climate record for Fort Simpson, NWT, to which were added GCM-predicted CO₂-induced monthly mean temperature and precipitation changes. Based on 120 simulations for next 100 years, permafrost in this area (now only up to 5 m thick) is predicted to degrade completely within 25 to 63 years. Prediction using climatic normals was found to underestimate time required to thaw permafrost completely, due to significance of occasional very cold years to persistance of marginal permafrost.
650 07 ‡a551.34 -- Geocryology. Frozen ground.‡2udc
650 07 ‡a551.345.2 -- Permafrost, formation and decay.‡2udc
650 07 ‡a519.673 -- Modelling.‡2udc
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